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Spišská Nová Ves vs Rudňany — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
FT
3 – 0
Rudňany
Rudňany
10/30/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 15Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves80%
×Draw12%
Rudňany8%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišská Nová Ves
3.28
Rudňany
1.00

Spišská Nová Ves creates 228% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves
2.56
Rudňany
1.13

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves
0.88
Rudňany
4.00

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par
Rudňany+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Rudňany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw
92%
Spišská Nová Ves or Rudňany
88%
Draw or Rudňany
20%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
62%
Rudňany wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
96%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
83%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
62%
Rudňany 1+ goals
63%
Rudňany 2+ goals
26%
Rudňany 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
91%
Rudňany (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Rudňany away — creates 1.13, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 2.56 + Rudňany defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.28

Rudňany attack 1.13 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more
80%
level
12%
Rudňany scores more
8%

Spišská Nová Ves at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Spišská Nová Ves 3–0 Rudňany

Spišská Nová Ves beat Rudňany 3-0 in 3. liga - East on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Nová Ves in Spišská Nová Ves.