Rudňany 1–1 Spišská Nová Ves: Result & Stats

Rudňany

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spišská Nová Ves

6/18/2022

3. liga - East · East - 30Futbalový štadión Rudňany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudňany21%

×Draw20%

Spišská Nová Ves59%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RudňanyExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.17

Rudňany

1.22

Spišská Nová Ves

2.17

Spišská Nová Ves creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

1.53

creates per match

1.73

2.60

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Rudňany

1.53

Spišská Nová Ves

1.73

allows per match

Rudňany

2.60

Spišská Nová Ves

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudňany+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudňany ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rudňany or draw

41%

Rudňany or Spišská Nová Ves

80%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

79%

Winning margin

Rudňany wins by 2+

8%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Rudňany 1+ goals

70%

Rudňany 2+ goals

34%

Rudňany 3+ goals

12%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

89%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

64%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Rudňany (draw refunded)

26%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudňany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudňany attack 1.53 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Rudňany defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rudňany scores more

21%

level

20%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

59%

Spišská Nová Ves at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff