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Spišská Nová Ves vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
CANC
12:30
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
11/14/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 17Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves83%
×Draw11%
Pokrok Krompachy6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišská Nová Ves
3.10
Pokrok Krompachy
0.74

Spišská Nová Ves creates 319% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves
2.56
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves
0.88
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw
94%
Spišská Nová Ves or Pokrok Krompachy
89%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
17%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
64%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
95%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
81%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
58%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
52%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
17%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
93%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 2.56 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.10

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more
83%
level
11%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
6%

Spišská Nová Ves at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spišská Nová Ves face Pokrok Krompachy (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Spišská Nová Ves hosting Pokrok Krompachy. Match starts November 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spišská Nová Ves host Pokrok Krompachy at Štadión Nová Ves.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.