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Pokrok Krompachy vs Spišská Nová Ves — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
FT
1 – 4
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
8/28/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 6Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy20%
×Draw22%
Spišská Nová Ves58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
1.07
Spišská Nová Ves
1.98

Spišská Nová Ves creates 85% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 64 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Spišská Nová Ves
1.73

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Spišská Nová Ves
0.91

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
42%
Pokrok Krompachy or Spišská Nová Ves
78%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
80%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
7%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
66%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
29%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
9%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
86%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
59%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
26%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
20%
level
22%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
58%

Spišská Nová Ves at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pokrok Krompachy vs Spišská Nová Ves

Spišská Nová Ves beat Pokrok Krompachy 4-1 in 3. liga - East on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy in Krompachy.