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Spišská Nová Ves vs Liptovský Mikuláš — 2. liga 2019

Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
11/18/20172. liga2. liga · Round 17Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves35%
×Draw26%
Liptovský Mikuláš40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišská Nová Ves
1.29
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 67 away

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves
0.94
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.66

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves
1.13
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.64

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par
Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw
60%
Spišská Nová Ves or Liptovský Mikuláš
74%
Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš
65%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
15%
Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
72%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
37%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
14%
Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
75%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
41%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
47%
Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.94 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.29

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.66 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more
35%
level
26%
Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
40%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Spišská Nová Ves 2–2 Liptovský Mikuláš

Spišská Nová Ves and Liptovský Mikuláš drew 2-2 in 2. liga on November 18, 2017.

The match was played at Štadión Nová Ves in Spišská Nová Ves.