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Liptovský Mikuláš vs Spišská Nová Ves — 2. liga 2019

Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
FT
0 – 0
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
8/5/20172. liga2. liga · Round 2Štadión Liptovský Mikuláš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš67%
×Draw19%
Spišská Nová Ves13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Mikuláš
2.15
Spišská Nová Ves
0.83

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 159% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 16 away

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.85
Spišská Nová Ves
0.56

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.10
Spišská Nová Ves
2.44

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw
87%
Liptovský Mikuláš or Spišská Nová Ves
81%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
33%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
43%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
88%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
63%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
36%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
56%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
20%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
84%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.85 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.15

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.56 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
67%
level
19%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
13%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liptovský Mikuláš vs Spišská Nová Ves

Liptovský Mikuláš and Spišská Nová Ves drew 0-0 in 2. liga on August 5, 2017.

The match was played at Štadión Liptovský Mikuláš in Liptovský Mikuláš.