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Spišská Nová Ves vs Komárno — 2. liga 2019

Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
FT
4 – 2
Komárno
Komárno
9/23/20172. liga2. liga · Round 9Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves38%
×Draw27%
Komárno35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišská Nová Ves
1.29
Komárno
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 71 away

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves
1.06
Komárno
1.28

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves
1.13
Komárno
1.52

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par
Komárno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Komárno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw
65%
Spišská Nová Ves or Komárno
73%
Draw or Komárno
62%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
17%
Komárno wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
72%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
37%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
14%
Komárno 1+ goals
70%
Komárno 2+ goals
34%
Komárno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
53%
Komárno (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Komárno away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.52 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.06 + Komárno defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Komárno attack 1.28 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more
38%
level
27%
Komárno scores more
35%

Spišská Nová Ves at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spišská Nová Ves vs Komárno

Spišská Nová Ves beat Komárno 4-2 in 2. liga on September 23, 2017.

The match was played at Štadión Nová Ves in Spišská Nová Ves.