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Komárno vs Spišská Nová Ves — 2. liga 2019

Komárno
Komárno
FT
7 – 0
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
4/14/20182. liga2. liga · Round 24Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Komárno74%
×Draw17%
Spišská Nová Ves9%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárno
2.29
Spišská Nová Ves
0.68

Komárno creates 237% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Komárno
1.86
Spišská Nová Ves
0.53

allows per match

Komárno
0.83
Spišská Nová Ves
2.71

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Komárno or draw
91%
Komárno or Spišská Nová Ves
83%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
26%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+
50%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals
90%
Komárno 2+ goals
66%
Komárno 3+ goals
40%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
49%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
15%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)
89%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.83 · 70 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 1.86 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.29

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.53 + Komárno defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Komárno scores more
74%
level
17%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
9%

Komárno at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Komárno 7–0 Spišská Nová Ves

Komárno beat Spišská Nová Ves 7-0 in 2. liga on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Komárno.