Spišská Nová Ves 6–2 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats

Spišská Nová Ves

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Dolný Kubín

3/8/2025

3. liga - East · East - 17Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves64%

×Draw19%

Dolný Kubín16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spišská Nová VesExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.04

Spišská Nová Ves

2.25

Dolný Kubín

1.04

Spišská Nová Ves creates 116% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

2.56

creates per match

1.20

0.88

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves

2.56

Dolný Kubín

1.20

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves

0.88

Dolný Kubín

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw

84%

Spišská Nová Ves or Dolný Kubín

81%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

36%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

41%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

89%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

65%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

39%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

65%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

28%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

80%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 2.56 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.25

Dolný Kubín attack 1.20 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

64%

level

19%

Dolný Kubín scores more

16%

Spišská Nová Ves at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff