Dolný Kubín 2–1 Spišská Nová Ves: Result & Stats

Dolný Kubín

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Spišská Nová Ves

A. Hanes 45'

A. Káčerík 19'

A. Havrylenko 69'

10/14/2023

2. liga · Round 12Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dolný Kubín57%

×Draw22%

Spišská Nová Ves22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolný KubínExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.17

Dolný Kubín

2.01

Spišská Nová Ves

1.17

Dolný Kubín creates 72% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 24 away

1.40

creates per match

0.63

1.70

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Dolný Kubín

1.40

Spišská Nová Ves

0.63

allows per match

Dolný Kubín

1.70

Spišská Nová Ves

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw

78%

Dolný Kubín or Spišská Nová Ves

78%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

43%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

34%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

87%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

59%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

32%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

69%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

33%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

72%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 1.40 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.01

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.63 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more

57%

level

22%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

22%

Dolný Kubín at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Káčerík

45'

A. Hanes

59'

A. Kacerik

63'

J. Škovran← M. Pribula

63'

67'

67'

69'

70'

71'

76'

L. Ontko← A. Havrylenko

77'

W. A. Ortegon

83'

Š. Ištvánik← W. Lasso

83'

V. Vakulinskyi← J. Etim

85'

P. Hanes← P. Bryndziar

86'

P. Hanes

88'

S. Istvanik

90+1'

M. Kunzo

90+1'

T. Giraldo

90+2'

A. Serdarević← F. Kolorédy

Dolný

Spišská

22

90

8

66

16

9

13

⚽

▼

Havrylenk

12

▼

Etim

4

▼

Lasso

20

▼

Pribula

5

▼

23

4

12

5

7

▼

Kolorédy

2

⚽

Káčerík

8

Machaj

15

▼

Bryndziar

9

▼

Brnča

6

Straka

11

⚽

▼

Hanes

Manager: L. Kaplán

67'▲P. Bača←▼A. Hanes

67'▲S. Dabić←▼S. Brnča

85'▲P. Hanes←▼P. Bryndziar

90+2'▲A. Serdarević←▼F. Kolorédy

Dolný Kubín substitutes

17Bača3Dabić14Hanes13Serdarević1Karajbić

Manager: B. Ondáš

63'▲J. Škovran←▼M. Pribula

63'▲J. Gonda←▼S. Smorada

76'▲L. Ontko←▼A. Havrylenko

83'▲Š. Ištvánik←▼W. Lasso

83'▲V. Vakulinskyi←▼J. Etim

Spišská Nová Ves substitutes

7Škovran3Gonda6Ontko10Ištvánik19Vakulinskyi17Kamenický1Sekáč