Spezia 2–1 Salernitana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Salernitana

E. Gyasi 83'

A. Ragusa 5'

L. Jallow 85'

12/29/2019

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Spezia48%

×Draw27%

Salernitana25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchSalernitana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.95

Spezia

1.42

Salernitana

0.95

Spezia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 75 away

1.40

creates per match

0.83

1.06

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Spezia

1.40

Salernitana

0.83

allows per match

Spezia

1.06

Salernitana

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Salernitana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

75%

Spezia or Salernitana

73%

Draw or Salernitana

52%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

23%

Salernitana wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

76%

Spezia 2+ goals

41%

Spezia 3+ goals

17%

Salernitana 1+ goals

61%

Salernitana 2+ goals

25%

Salernitana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

65%

Salernitana (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.06 · 93 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.40 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Salernitana attack 0.83 + Spezia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spezia scores more

48%

level

27%

Salernitana scores more

25%

Spezia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

G. Maggiore

Spezia · M

7.3

Match Events

5'

A. Ragusa↳ G. Maggiore

28'

Sofian Kiyine

31'

Jean Claude Billong

36'

Claudio Terzi

58'

F. Di Tacchio← J. Akpa Akpro

66'

L. Jallow← E. Cicerelli

68'

Giuseppe Mastinu

71'

M. Ricci← G. Mastinu

72'

F. Maistro← C. Gondo

76'

S. Gudjohnsen← A. Ragusa

80'

83'

85'

88'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaSalernitana

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots11

4Corners1

19Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target4

9Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

400Total Passes457

306Accurate Passes358

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4