Salernitana 0–2 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Salernitana

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

N. Bertola 73'

E. Soleri 54'

10/19/2024

Serie B · Round 9Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Salernitana44%

×Draw26%

Spezia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Salernitana

1.42

Spezia

1.11

Salernitana creates 28% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 91 away

1.49

creates per match

1.13

1.10

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Salernitana

1.49

Spezia

1.13

allows per match

Salernitana

1.10

Spezia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

71%

Salernitana or Spezia

74%

Draw or Spezia

56%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

21%

Spezia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

76%

Salernitana 2+ goals

41%

Salernitana 3+ goals

17%

Spezia 1+ goals

67%

Spezia 2+ goals

30%

Spezia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

60%

Spezia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.49 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Spezia attack 1.13 + Salernitana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salernitana scores more

44%

level

26%

Spezia scores more

29%

Salernitana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

S. Gori

Spezia · G

8.5

Match Events

15'

46'

52'

53'

54'

60'

Y. Kallon← R. Soriano

69'

69'

69'

70'

70'

P. Ghiglione← P. Stojanović

73'

N. Bertola↳ S. Esposito

74'

E. Torregrossa← D. Verde

84'

D. Falcinelli← G. Di Serio

87'

D. Degli Innocenti← F. Bandinelli

90+3'

Gian Marco Ferrari

90+5'

Luca Vignali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaSpezia

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots14

5Corners9

15Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots14

5On Target4

8Off Target7

5Blocked3

6Inside Box9

12Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

519Total Passes316

448Accurate Passes242

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Serie B: Salernitana 0–2 Spezia

Spezia beat Salernitana 2-0 in Serie B on October 19, 2024.

Goals: E. Soleri (54'), N. Bertola (73').

Salernitana controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.

Salernitana vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Salernitana 0–2 Spezia