Salernitana 2–2 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Salernitana

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Spezia

2/7/2022

Serie A · Round 24Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Salernitana23%

×Draw25%

Spezia52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.60

Salernitana

0.96

Spezia

1.60

Spezia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

1.87

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Salernitana

0.67

Spezia

1.33

allows per match

Salernitana

1.87

Spezia

1.25

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.22scores more

Spezia+0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

48%

Salernitana or Spezia

75%

Draw or Spezia

77%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

8%

Spezia wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

62%

Salernitana 2+ goals

25%

Salernitana 3+ goals

7%

Spezia 1+ goals

80%

Spezia 2+ goals

47%

Spezia 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

30%

Spezia (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.87 · 9 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 0.67 + Spezia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Spezia attack 1.33 + Salernitana defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Salernitana scores more

23%

level

25%

Spezia scores more

52%

Spezia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff