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Spezia vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Padova
Padova
F. Bonazzoli 56', 16'
3/9/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 28Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Spezia48%
×Draw26%
Padova27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.51
Padova
1.06

Spezia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 35 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.40
Padova
1.06

allows per match

Spezia
1.06
Padova
1.63

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
73%
Spezia or Padova
74%
Draw or Padova
52%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
24%
Padova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
78%
Spezia 2+ goals
44%
Spezia 3+ goals
19%
Padova 1+ goals
65%
Padova 2+ goals
29%
Padova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
64%
Padova (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.06 · 93 matches

Padova away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.40 + Padova defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Padova attack 1.06 + Spezia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spezia scores more
48%
level
26%
Padova scores more
27%

Spezia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
F. Bonazzoli↳ L. Lollo
45'
Matteo Ricci
53'
N. Madonna← D. Mazzocco
56'
A. Galabinov← F. De Col
56'
F. Bonazzoli↳ Y. Baraye
58'
Alessandro Ligi
63'
G. Maggiore← M. Ricci
69'
Federico Bonazzoli
71'
D. Cappelletti← L. Lollo
84'
A. De Francesco← L. Mora
84'
A. Cocco← F. Bonazzoli
87'
Andrea Cocco
90'
Nicola Madonna

Possession

55%Spezia

Shots

16Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaPadova
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots7
11Corners2
10Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots7
7On Target3
9Off Target4
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Spezia 0 – 2 Padova

Padova beat Spezia 2-0 in Serie B on March 9, 2019.

Goals: F. Bonazzoli (16', 56').

Spezia controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.