Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Padova vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Spezia
Spezia
K. Lasagna 78'
F. Sgarbi 39'
G. Bonfanti 82'
G. Artistico 24'
3/3/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 28Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Padova35%
×Draw24%
Spezia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.44
Spezia
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Padova
1.11
Spezia
1.61

allows per match

Padova
1.52
Spezia
1.76

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Spezia-0.41scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Padova or draw
60%
Padova or Spezia
76%
Draw or Spezia
65%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
16%
Spezia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
76%
Padova 2+ goals
42%
Padova 3+ goals
18%
Spezia 1+ goals
79%
Spezia 2+ goals
46%
Spezia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
47%
Spezia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 9 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.11 + Spezia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spezia attack 1.61 + Padova defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Padova scores more
35%
level
24%
Spezia scores more
40%

Spezia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94
G. BonfantiSpeziaSpezia · D
8.3

Match Events

14'
Giuseppe Aurelio
24'
G. Artistico↳ G. Bonfanti
39'
F. Sgarbi
50'
Marco Ruggero
58'
C. Buonaiuto← G. Caprari
60'
F. Bandinelli← A. Bellemo
60'
A. Romano← A. Nagy
71'
G. Favale← C. Faedo
71'
J. Silva← A. Capelli
75'
M. Valoti← V. Vlahovic
75'
L. Vignali← M. Ruggero
78'
K. Lasagna↳ P. Fusi
81'
P. Beruatto← A. Mateju
82'
G. Bonfanti↳ P. Beruatto
85'
L. Di Maggio← F. Di Mariano
85'
A. Seghetti← K. Lasagna

Possession

51%Padova

Shots

19Padova

Pass accuracy

51%Padova

Statistics

PadovaSpezia
Overview
51%Possession49%
19Total Shots13
1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.09
6Corners5
15Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots13
5On Target10
9Off Target1
5Blocked2
8Inside Box8
11Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
410Total Passes420
337Accurate Passes330
82%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
0.12Goals Prevented0.12
Discipline
15Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Serie B: Padova 2–2 Spezia

Padova and Spezia drew 2-2 in Serie B on March 3, 2026.

Goals: G. Artistico (24'), F. Sgarbi (39'), K. Lasagna (78'), G. Bonfanti (82').

Padova controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.