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Spezia vs Foggia — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Foggia
Foggia
A. Gilardino 31'
12/8/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Spezia48%
×Draw26%
Foggia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.50
Foggia
1.05

Spezia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 25 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.40
Foggia
1.04

allows per match

Spezia
1.06
Foggia
1.60

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par
Foggia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Foggia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
73%
Spezia or Foggia
74%
Draw or Foggia
52%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
24%
Foggia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
78%
Spezia 2+ goals
44%
Spezia 3+ goals
19%
Foggia 1+ goals
65%
Foggia 2+ goals
28%
Foggia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
64%
Foggia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.06 · 93 matches

Foggia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.40 + Foggia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Foggia attack 1.04 + Spezia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spezia scores more
48%
level
26%
Foggia scores more
27%

Spezia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
A. Gilardino↳ W. López
46'
Davide Agazzi
60'
C. Chiricò← R. Floriano
64'
F. Forte← G. Marilungo
71'
Cristian Agnelli
71'
L. Vignali← G. Mastinu
72'
F. Fedato← A. Gerbo
75'
M. Rubin← A. Celli
78'
P. Granoche← A. Gilardino
87'
Walter López

Possession

46%Spezia

Shots

4Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaFoggia
Overview
46%Possession54%
4Total Shots9
4Corners8
14Fouls14
Shots
4Total Shots9
2On Target1
2Off Target8
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
4Offsides1

Serie B: Spezia 1–0 Foggia

Spezia beat Foggia 1-0 in Serie B on December 8, 2017.

Goals: A. Gilardino (31').

Foggia controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.