Foggia 1–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Foggia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

P. Iemmello 84'

4/6/2019

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria (Foggia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Foggia46%

×Draw25%

Spezia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FoggiaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.16

Foggia

1.54

Spezia

1.16

Foggia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 91 away

1.73

creates per match

1.13

1.19

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Foggia

1.73

Spezia

1.13

allows per match

Foggia

1.19

Spezia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Foggia or draw

71%

Foggia or Spezia

75%

Draw or Spezia

54%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+

23%

Spezia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals

79%

Foggia 2+ goals

45%

Foggia 3+ goals

20%

Spezia 1+ goals

69%

Spezia 2+ goals

32%

Spezia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)

62%

Spezia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.73 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Spezia attack 1.13 + Foggia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Foggia scores more

46%

level

25%

Spezia scores more

29%

Foggia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Marco Zambelli

35'

Matteo Ricci

41'

Emmanuel Quartsin Gyasi

56'

P. Iemmello← C. Galano

65'

M. Busellato← C. Agnelli

73'

Giulio Maggiore

74'

Alessando Ligi

76'

N. Pierini← E. Gyasi

80'

Luca Ranieri

82'

E. Cicerelli← M. Zambelli

84'

P. Iemmello↳ A. Gerbo

85'

A. Galabinov← M. Ricci

87'

A. De Francesco← G. Maggiore

Possession

Statistics

FoggiaSpezia

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

4On Target1

8Off Target1

Passing

57%Possession43%

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Serie B: Foggia 1–0 Spezia

Foggia beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie B on April 6, 2019.

Goals: P. Iemmello (84').

Foggia dominated possession with 57% of the ball.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria (Foggia).

Foggia vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Statistics

Serie B: Foggia 1–0 Spezia