Spezia 4–2 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Carrarese

P. Hristov 82'

F. Esposito 61', 24'

S. Esposito 48' (pen)

F. Oliana 74'

L. Cerri 5'

9/22/2024

Serie B · Round 6Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spezia52%

×Draw25%

Carrarese23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.99

Spezia

1.61

Carrarese

0.99

Spezia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 38 away

1.48

creates per match

0.95

1.04

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Spezia

1.48

Carrarese

0.95

allows per match

Spezia

1.04

Carrarese

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

77%

Spezia or Carrarese

75%

Draw or Carrarese

48%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

27%

Carrarese wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

80%

Spezia 2+ goals

48%

Spezia 3+ goals

22%

Carrarese 1+ goals

63%

Carrarese 2+ goals

26%

Carrarese 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

69%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.04 · 98 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.48 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Spezia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spezia scores more

52%

level

25%

Carrarese scores more

23%

Spezia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Esposito

Spezia · M

10.0

Match Events

5'

L. Cerri

18'

Petko Hristov

22'

Samuel Giovane

24'

F. Esposito↳ S. Esposito

26'

Salvatore Esposito

28'

Leonardo Cerri

41'

Arkadiusz Reca

48'

S. EspositoPenalty

56'

M. Finotto← L. Cerri

56'

N. Belloni← M. Cicconi

57'

D. Bouah← S. Zanon

61'

F. Esposito

64'

Devid Eugene Bouah

69'

A. Čolak← F. Esposito

71'

Filippo Oliana

72'

L. Cherubini← G. Panico

74'

F. Oliana↳ S. Shpendi

77'

E. Zuelli← S. Giovane

80'

S. Elia← A. Reca

80'

Á. Nagy← F. Bandinelli

82'

P. Hristov↳ S. Esposito

86'

D. Degli Innocenti← F. Cassata

86'

D. Falcinelli← E. Soleri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaCarrarese

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots12

9Corners5

17Fouls22

Shots

19Total Shots12

11On Target6

7Off Target3

1Blocked3

15Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

315Total Passes293

241Accurate Passes208

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls22

3Yellow Cards4