Carrarese 3–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carrarese

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Spezia

F. Abiuso 63'

M. Finotto 23'

N. Calabrese 17'

M. Valoti 49'

4/6/2026

Serie B · Round 33Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese45%

×Draw27%

Spezia28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Carrarese

1.35

Spezia

1.00

Carrarese creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 59 away

1.32

creates per match

1.07

0.92

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Carrarese

1.32

Spezia

1.07

allows per match

Carrarese

0.92

Spezia

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

72%

Carrarese or Spezia

73%

Draw or Spezia

55%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

21%

Spezia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

74%

Carrarese 2+ goals

39%

Carrarese 3+ goals

15%

Spezia 1+ goals

63%

Spezia 2+ goals

26%

Spezia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

62%

Spezia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Spezia defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Spezia attack 1.07 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carrarese scores more

45%

level

27%

Spezia scores more

28%

Carrarese at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Valoti

Spezia · F

8.9

Match Events

16'

Giovanni Bonfanti

17'

N. Calabrese↳ E. Zuelli

23'

M. Finotto↳ S. Zanon

45+2'

Aleš Matějů

46'

G. Lapadula← A. Mateju

49'

M. Valoti↳ G. Artistico

59'

63'

69'

70'

70'

F. Di Stefano← M. Finotto

70'

E. Adamo← F. Bandinelli

70'

C. Comotto← L. Vignali

79'

N. Schiavi← L. Hasa

79'

M. Ruggero← G. Aurelio

85'

Mattia Valoti

85'

T. Rubino← F. Abiuso

85'

D. Bouah← S. Zanon

85'

A. Bellemo← A. Romano

90'

90+6'

90+2'

90'

90+1'

Giovanni BonfantiCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseSpezia

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots16

2.61Expected Goals (xG)1.44

2Corners5

12Fouls22

Shots

12Total Shots16

4On Target4

7Off Target4

1Blocked8

10Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

358Total Passes337

285Accurate Passes266

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.98Goals Prevented-0.98

Discipline

12Fouls22

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards3

5Offsides1

Serie B: Carrarese 3–1 Spezia

Carrarese beat Spezia 3-1 in Serie B on April 6, 2026.

Goals: N. Calabrese (17'), M. Finotto (23'), M. Valoti (49'), F. Abiuso (63').

Carrarese controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.

Carrarese vs Spezia — Serie B 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Carrarese 3–1 Spezia