Spezia 1–0 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Avellino

G. Artistico 26'

1/24/2026

Serie B · Round 21Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Spezia57%

×Draw25%

Avellino17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.73

Spezia

1.57

Avellino

0.73

Spezia creates 115% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

0.44

1.03

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Spezia

1.64

Avellino

0.44

allows per match

Spezia

1.03

Avellino

1.51

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.36scores more

Avellino+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

83%

Spezia or Avellino

75%

Draw or Avellino

43%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

31%

Avellino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

79%

Spezia 2+ goals

46%

Spezia 3+ goals

21%

Avellino 1+ goals

52%

Avellino 2+ goals

17%

Avellino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

77%

Avellino (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 8 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.51 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.64 + Avellino defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Avellino attack 0.44 + Spezia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spezia scores more

57%

level

25%

Avellino scores more

17%

Spezia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Artistico

Spezia · F

8.0

Match Events

2'

Aleš Matějů

8'

Lorenco Šimić

25'

A. Romano← F. Bandinelli

26'

G. Artistico

32'

Alessandro Romano

36'

Alessandro Fontanarosa

37'

L. Vignali← A. Mateju

46'

G. Aurelio← E. Adamo

56'

Martin Palumbo

64'

Francesco Cassata

68'

A. Favilli← L. Palmiero

75'

D. Verde← E. Soleri

75'

C. Comotto← M. Valoti

80'

M. Besaggio← T. Cancellotti

80'

R. Russo← G. Tutino

86'

P. Enrici← A. Fontanarosa

86'

C. Patierno← T. Biasci

89'

Marco Sala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaAvellino

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots11

0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.48

3Corners9

17Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots11

1On Target1

4Off Target5

7Blocked5

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

322Total Passes437

233Accurate Passes335

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides4

Serie B: Spezia 1–0 Avellino

Spezia beat Avellino 1-0 in Serie B on January 24, 2026.

Goals: G. Artistico (26').

Avellino controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.

Spezia vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Spezia 1–0 Avellino