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Avellino vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Avellino
Avellino
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
G. Di Serio 90'
L. Vignali 85'
V. Vlahovic 82'
G. Aurelio 63'
10/25/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 9Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Avellino42%
×Draw24%
Spezia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avellino
1.62
Spezia
1.44

Avellino creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Avellino
1.48
Spezia
1.67

allows per match

Avellino
1.21
Spezia
1.76

finishing

Avellino-0.18scores less
Spezia-0.56scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Avellino or draw
66%
Avellino or Spezia
76%
Draw or Spezia
58%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+
21%
Spezia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals
80%
Avellino 2+ goals
48%
Avellino 3+ goals
22%
Spezia 1+ goals
76%
Spezia 2+ goals
42%
Spezia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)
55%
Spezia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.76 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.48 + Spezia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

Spezia attack 1.67 + Avellino defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avellino scores more
42%
level
24%
Spezia scores more
34%

Avellino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
S. EspositoSpeziaSpezia · M
8.6

Match Events

18'
Francesco Cassata
44'
Luca Palmiero
46'
Michele Besaggio
46'
A. Milani← A. Cagnano
46'
M. Palumbo← T. Biasci
46'
R. Kouda← F. Cassata
61'
M. Gyabuaa← D. Sounas
63'
G. Aurelio↳ A. Nagy
66'
R. Russo← M. Besaggio
72'
G. Di Serio← E. Soleri
76'
G. Tutino← F. Missori
80'
P. Beruatto← G. Aurelio
80'
V. Vlahovic← G. Lapadula
81'
Lorenco Šimić
82'
V. Vlahovic↳ S. Esposito
85'
L. Vignali
88'
A. Candela← Fellipe Jack
90'
G. Di Serio↳ P. Beruatto

Possession

50%Avellino

Shots

7Avellino

Pass accuracy

49%Avellino

Statistics

AvellinoSpezia
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots23
7Corners6
12Fouls18
Shots
7Total Shots23
3On Target7
2Off Target5
2Blocked11
5Inside Box15
2Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
375Total Passes378
317Accurate Passes327
85%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Avellino vs Spezia

Spezia beat Avellino 4-0 in Serie B on October 25, 2025.

Goals: G. Aurelio (63'), V. Vlahovic (82'), L. Vignali (85'), G. Di Serio (90').

Avellino controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 23.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.