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Spezia U19 vs Perugia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Spezia U19
Spezia U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Perugia U19
Perugia U19
4/11/2026Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Spezia U1952%
×Draw22%
Perugia U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia U19
1.93
Perugia U19
1.29

Spezia U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 73 away

creates per match

Spezia U19
1.98
Perugia U19
1.18

allows per match

Spezia U19
1.40
Perugia U19
1.88

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par
Perugia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Perugia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw
74%
Spezia U19 or Perugia U19
78%
Draw or Perugia U19
48%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+
30%
Perugia U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals
85%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
57%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
30%
Perugia U19 1+ goals
72%
Perugia U19 2+ goals
37%
Perugia U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Perugia U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Perugia U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Perugia U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.93

Perugia U19 attack 1.18 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spezia U19 scores more
52%
level
22%
Perugia U19 scores more
26%

Spezia U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spezia U19 vs Perugia U19

Perugia U19 beat Spezia U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 11, 2026.