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Perugia U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Perugia U19
Perugia U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
12/21/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 13Centro Sportivo Paolo Rossi Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Perugia U1949%
×Draw23%
Spezia U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perugia U19
1.76
Spezia U19
1.27

Perugia U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 83 away

creates per match

Perugia U19
1.93
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Perugia U19
1.17
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Perugia U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Perugia U19 or draw
72%
Perugia U19 or Spezia U19
77%
Draw or Spezia U19
51%

Winning margin

Perugia U19 wins by 2+
26%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Perugia U19 1+ goals
83%
Perugia U19 2+ goals
52%
Perugia U19 3+ goals
26%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
72%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
36%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Perugia U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia U19 attack 1.93 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.76

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Perugia U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Perugia U19 scores more
49%
level
23%
Spezia U19 scores more
28%

Perugia U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Perugia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perugia U19 vs Spezia U19

Perugia U19 beat Spezia U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Paolo Rossi Campo 1 in Perugia.