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Spezia U19 vs Monopoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Spezia U19
Spezia U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
3/15/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 23Intels Training Center Ferdeghini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Spezia U1956%
×Draw21%
Monopoli U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia U19
2.06
Monopoli U19
1.25

Spezia U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 61 away

creates per match

Spezia U19
1.98
Monopoli U19
1.11

allows per match

Spezia U19
1.40
Monopoli U19
2.15

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par
Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Monopoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw
77%
Spezia U19 or Monopoli U19
79%
Draw or Monopoli U19
44%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+
33%
Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals
87%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
61%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
34%
Monopoli U19 1+ goals
71%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
36%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Monopoli U19 away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Monopoli U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.06

Monopoli U19 attack 1.11 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spezia U19 scores more
56%
level
21%
Monopoli U19 scores more
23%

Spezia U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Spezia U19 1–1 Monopoli U19

Spezia U19 and Monopoli U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Intels Training Center Ferdeghini in La Spezia.