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Monopoli U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
3/16/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 23Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Monopoli U1934%
×Draw25%
Spezia U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monopoli U19
1.32
Spezia U19
1.45

Spezia U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 83 away

creates per match

Monopoli U19
1.05
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Monopoli U19
1.52
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Monopoli U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monopoli U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monopoli U19 or draw
60%
Monopoli U19 or Spezia U19
75%
Draw or Spezia U19
66%

Winning margin

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
15%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Monopoli U19 1+ goals
73%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
38%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
15%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
77%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
42%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monopoli U19 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monopoli U19 attack 1.05 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Monopoli U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Monopoli U19 scores more
34%
level
25%
Spezia U19 scores more
40%

Spezia U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monopoli U19 vs Spezia U19

Monopoli U19 and Spezia U19 drew 3-3 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia in Castellana Grotte.