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Spezia U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Spezia U19
Spezia U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cesena U19
Cesena U19
A. Campana 84'
R. Di Giorgio 18'
A. Giovannini 23'
E. Pitti 11'
2/3/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 17Intels Training Center Ferdeghini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Spezia U1934%
×Draw22%
Cesena U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia U19
1.71
Cesena U19
1.98

Cesena U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 28 away

creates per match

Spezia U19
1.98
Cesena U19
2.57

allows per match

Spezia U19
1.40
Cesena U19
1.43

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw
55%
Spezia U19 or Cesena U19
78%
Draw or Cesena U19
66%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+
17%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals
82%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
51%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
24%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
86%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
59%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spezia U19 scores more
34%
level
22%
Cesena U19 scores more
45%

Cesena U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
E. Pitti
18'
R. Di Giorgio
23'
A. Giovannini
84'
A. Campana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Spezia U19 2–2 Cesena U19

Spezia U19 and Cesena U19 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 3, 2024.

Goals: E. Pitti (11'), R. Di Giorgio (18'), A. Giovannini (23'), A. Campana (84').

The match was played at Intels Training Center Ferdeghini in La Spezia.