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Cesena U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cesena U19
Cesena U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
2/19/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 17Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1969%
×Draw17%
Spezia U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U19
2.61
Spezia U19
1.13

Cesena U19 creates 131% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 83 away

creates per match

Cesena U19
3.63
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Cesena U19
0.89
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw
85%
Cesena U19 or Spezia U19
83%
Draw or Spezia U19
31%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+
47%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals
93%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
73%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
47%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
68%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
31%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
82%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.61

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cesena U19 scores more
69%
level
17%
Spezia U19 scores more
15%

Cesena U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesena U19 vs Spezia U19

Cesena U19 beat Spezia U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni in Villa Silvia di Lizzano.