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Speyer vs Hertha Wiesbach — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Speyer
Speyer
FT
1 – 2
Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
10/10/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 11Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Speyer29%
×Draw20%
Hertha Wiesbach51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speyer
1.83
Hertha Wiesbach
2.44

Hertha Wiesbach creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 42 away

creates per match

Speyer
1.36
Hertha Wiesbach
1.95

allows per match

Speyer
2.93
Hertha Wiesbach
2.31

finishing

Speyer+0.00on par
Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speyer ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Speyer or draw
49%
Speyer or Hertha Wiesbach
80%
Draw or Hertha Wiesbach
71%

Winning margin

Speyer wins by 2+
15%
Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Speyer 1+ goals
84%
Speyer 2+ goals
54%
Speyer 3+ goals
28%
Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
91%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
70%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Speyer (draw refunded)
36%
Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speyer at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speyer attack 1.36 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hertha Wiesbach attack 1.95 + Speyer defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Speyer scores more
29%
level
20%
Hertha Wiesbach scores more
51%

Hertha Wiesbach at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Speyer vs Hertha Wiesbach

Hertha Wiesbach beat Speyer 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3 in Speyer.