Hertha Wiesbach 8–1 Speyer: Result & Stats

Hertha Wiesbach

FT

8 – 1

HT: 6 – 1

Speyer

3/5/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach58%

×Draw19%

Speyer24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha WiesbachExpected goals in this matchSpeyer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.63

Hertha Wiesbach

2.58

Speyer

1.63

Hertha Wiesbach creates 58% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

2.28

creates per match

1.44

1.81

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach

2.28

Speyer

1.44

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach

1.81

Speyer

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Speyer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Speyer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw

76%

Hertha Wiesbach or Speyer

81%

Draw or Speyer

42%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+

37%

Speyer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals

92%

Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals

72%

Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals

47%

Speyer 1+ goals

80%

Speyer 2+ goals

48%

Speyer 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)

71%

Speyer (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Speyer away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.28 + Speyer defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.58

Speyer attack 1.44 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more

58%

level

19%

Speyer scores more

24%

Hertha Wiesbach at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff