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Speyer vs Elversberg II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Speyer
Speyer
CANC
15:00
Elversberg II
Elversberg II
11/15/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Speyer38%
×Draw21%
Elversberg II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speyer
1.93
Elversberg II
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Speyer
1.36
Elversberg II
1.08

allows per match

Speyer
2.93
Elversberg II
2.50

finishing

Speyer+0.00on par
Elversberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speyer ↓

Elversberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Speyer or draw
59%
Speyer or Elversberg II
79%
Draw or Elversberg II
62%

Winning margin

Speyer wins by 2+
20%
Elversberg II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Speyer 1+ goals
85%
Speyer 2+ goals
57%
Speyer 3+ goals
30%
Elversberg II 1+ goals
86%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
59%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Speyer (draw refunded)
48%
Elversberg II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speyer at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Elversberg II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speyer attack 1.36 + Elversberg II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Elversberg II attack 1.08 + Speyer defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Speyer scores more
38%
level
21%
Elversberg II scores more
41%

Elversberg II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Elversberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Speyer face Elversberg II (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Speyer hosting Elversberg II. Match starts November 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Speyer host Elversberg II at Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.