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Elversberg II vs Speyer — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
FT
2 – 1
Speyer
Speyer
9/6/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Elversberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Elversberg II43%
×Draw21%
Speyer36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
2.10
Speyer
1.90

Elversberg II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.32
Speyer
1.44

allows per match

Elversberg II
2.36
Speyer
2.88

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Speyer+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Speyer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
64%
Elversberg II or Speyer
79%
Draw or Speyer
57%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
24%
Speyer wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
88%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
62%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
35%
Speyer 1+ goals
85%
Speyer 2+ goals
56%
Speyer 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
55%
Speyer (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

Speyer away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.32 + Speyer defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.10

Speyer attack 1.44 + Elversberg II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Elversberg II scores more
43%
level
21%
Speyer scores more
36%

Elversberg II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Elversberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Elversberg II 2–1 Speyer

Elversberg II beat Speyer 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Elversberg Kunstrasen in Spiesen-Elversberg.