Speranţa Nisporeni 1–4 Petrocub: Result & Stats

Speranţa Nisporeni

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Petrocub

O. Nasonov 35'

I. Ţurcan 90+3'

A. Bejan 80'

V. Ambros 45'

D. Taras 31'

7/25/2020

Super Liga · Round 6Complexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Speranţa Nisporeni14%

×Draw21%

Petrocub64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Speranţa NisporeniExpected goals in this matchPetrocub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.93

Speranţa Nisporeni

0.78

Petrocub

1.93

Petrocub creates 147% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 92 away

0.82

creates per match

1.75

2.11

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

0.82

Petrocub

1.75

allows per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

2.11

Petrocub

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranţa Nisporeni ↓

Petrocub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Speranţa Nisporeni or draw

36%

Speranţa Nisporeni or Petrocub

79%

Draw or Petrocub

86%

Winning margin

Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+

4%

Petrocub wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals

54%

Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals

18%

Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals

4%

Petrocub 1+ goals

85%

Petrocub 2+ goals

57%

Petrocub 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)

18%

Petrocub (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranţa Nisporeni at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.11 · 28 matches

Petrocub away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 0.82 + Petrocub defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Petrocub attack 1.75 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Speranţa Nisporeni scores more

14%

level

21%

Petrocub scores more

64%

Petrocub at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

D. Taras

35'

O. Nasonov

45'

V. Ambros

59'

I. Damaşcan← D. Taras

59'

64'

66'

71'

73'

77'

80'

85'

V. Bogaciuc← A. Cojocari

85'

V. Gulceac← S. Plătică

90+3'

I. Ţurcan

Speranţa

Petrocub

29

Avram

4

Racu

90

Jardan

71

▼

Cojocari

84

▼

Onica

27

Rozgoniuc

6

⚽

▼

Taras

9

⚽

▼

Ambros

2

Ndzomo

20

Douanla

11

▼

Plătică

34

Budyuk

4

⚽

Nasonov

96

Guyganov

31

Starîș

5

▼

Bolun

17

▼

15

10

93

8

87

Manager: I. Osipenco

66'▲A. Bursuc←▼M. Bolun

77'▲S. Trofan←▼I. Tiehi

Speranţa Nisporeni substitutes

20Bursuc21Trofan1Chirinciuc77Ermachenko

Manager: L. Popescu

59'▲I. Damaşcan←▼D. Taras

59'▲I. Ţurcan←▼A. Onica

71'▲A. Bejan←▼V. Ambros

85'▲V. Bogaciuc←▼A. Cojocari

85'▲V. Gulceac←▼S. Plătică

Petrocub substitutes

7Damaşcan8Ţurcan10Bejan17Bogaciuc18Gulceac1Guțul5Rusu14Vlas22Efros26Muntean99Mostovei

Match Recap: Speranţa Nisporeni vs Petrocub

Petrocub beat Speranţa Nisporeni 4-1 in Super Liga on July 25, 2020.

Goals: D. Taras (31'), O. Nasonov (35'), V. Ambros (45'), A. Bejan (80'), I. Ţurcan (90+3').

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Raional in Orhei.

Speranţa Nisporeni vs Petrocub — Super Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Speranţa Nisporeni vs Petrocub