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Petrocub vs Speranţa Nisporeni — Super Liga 2026

Petrocub
Petrocub
FT
3 – 0
Speranţa Nisporeni
Speranţa Nisporeni
5/16/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 33Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Petrocub64%
×Draw21%
Speranţa Nisporeni15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrocub
2.00
Speranţa Nisporeni
0.86

Petrocub creates 133% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 27 away

creates per match

Petrocub
2.16
Speranţa Nisporeni
1.11

allows per match

Petrocub
0.62
Speranţa Nisporeni
1.85

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par
Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Speranţa Nisporeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw
85%
Petrocub or Speranţa Nisporeni
79%
Draw or Speranţa Nisporeni
36%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+
39%
Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals
86%
Petrocub 2+ goals
59%
Petrocub 3+ goals
32%
Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals
58%
Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals
21%
Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)
81%
Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.62 · 99 matches

Speranţa Nisporeni away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 2.16 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 1.11 + Petrocub defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Petrocub scores more
64%
level
21%
Speranţa Nisporeni scores more
15%

Petrocub at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrocub vs Speranţa Nisporeni

Petrocub beat Speranţa Nisporeni 3-0 in Super Liga on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Hînceşti.