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Speranţa Nisporeni vs Petrocub — Super Liga 2026

Speranţa Nisporeni
Speranţa Nisporeni
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Petrocub
Petrocub
4/21/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 6Complexul Sportiv Raional (Orhei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Speranţa Nisporeni15%
×Draw22%
Petrocub63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speranţa Nisporeni
0.78
Petrocub
1.88

Petrocub creates 141% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 94 away

creates per match

Speranţa Nisporeni
0.79
Petrocub
1.73

allows per match

Speranţa Nisporeni
2.03
Petrocub
0.76

finishing

Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par
Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranţa Nisporeni ↓

Petrocub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Speranţa Nisporeni or draw
37%
Speranţa Nisporeni or Petrocub
78%
Draw or Petrocub
85%

Winning margin

Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+
4%
Petrocub wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals
54%
Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals
18%
Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals
4%
Petrocub 1+ goals
85%
Petrocub 2+ goals
56%
Petrocub 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)
19%
Petrocub (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranţa Nisporeni at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.03 · 29 matches

Petrocub away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 0.79 + Petrocub defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Petrocub attack 1.73 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Speranţa Nisporeni scores more
15%
level
22%
Petrocub scores more
63%

Petrocub at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Speranţa Nisporeni 1–1 Petrocub

Speranţa Nisporeni and Petrocub drew 1-1 in Super Liga on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Raional (Orhei).