Speranța Drochia 1–2 Spartanii Selemet

Speranța Drochia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spartanii Selemet

5/8/2024

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 10Complexul Sportiv Drochia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Speranța Drochia33%

×Draw24%

Spartanii Selemet43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Speranța DrochiaExpected goals in this matchSpartanii Selemet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.60

Speranța Drochia

1.36

Spartanii Selemet

1.60

Spartanii Selemet creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 48 away

0.40

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Speranța Drochia

0.40

Spartanii Selemet

1.00

allows per match

Speranța Drochia

2.20

Spartanii Selemet

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranța Drochia ↓

Spartanii Selemet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Speranța Drochia or draw

57%

Speranța Drochia or Spartanii Selemet

76%

Draw or Spartanii Selemet

67%

Winning margin

Speranța Drochia wins by 2+

14%

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Speranța Drochia 1+ goals

74%

Speranța Drochia 2+ goals

39%

Speranța Drochia 3+ goals

16%

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

80%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

47%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)

43%

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranța Drochia at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranța Drochia attack 0.40 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Speranța Drochia defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Speranța Drochia scores more

33%

level

24%

Spartanii Selemet scores more

43%

Spartanii Selemet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartanii Selemet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff