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Spartanii Selemet vs Speranța Drochia — Super Liga 2026

Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
4/13/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 5Stadionul CS Real Succes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spartanii Selemet57%
×Draw20%
Speranța Drochia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartanii Selemet
2.28
Speranța Drochia
1.40

Spartanii Selemet creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet
1.13
Speranța Drochia
0.43

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet
2.37
Speranța Drochia
3.43

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw
77%
Spartanii Selemet or Speranța Drochia
80%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
43%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
35%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
90%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
66%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
39%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
75%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
41%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
71%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.37 · 46 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.13 + Speranța Drochia defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.28

Speranța Drochia attack 0.43 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more
57%
level
20%
Speranța Drochia scores more
23%

Spartanii Selemet at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spartanii Selemet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Spartanii Selemet 2–1 Speranța Drochia

Spartanii Selemet beat Speranța Drochia 2-1 in Super Liga on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul CS Real Succes in Chişinău.