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Speranis Nisporeni vs Olimp Comrat — League #395 2026

Speranis Nisporeni
Speranis Nisporeni
FT
2 – 0
Olimp Comrat
Olimp Comrat
10/28/2023League #395League #395 · Round 9Teren sintetic Nisporeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Speranis Nisporeni70%
×Draw17%
Olimp Comrat13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speranis Nisporeni
2.43
Olimp Comrat
0.94

Speranis Nisporeni creates 159% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Speranis Nisporeni
3.00
Olimp Comrat
1.14

allows per match

Speranis Nisporeni
0.75
Olimp Comrat
1.86

finishing

Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par
Olimp Comrat+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranis Nisporeni ↓

Olimp Comrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Speranis Nisporeni or draw
87%
Speranis Nisporeni or Olimp Comrat
83%
Draw or Olimp Comrat
30%

Winning margin

Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+
47%
Olimp Comrat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals
91%
Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals
69%
Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals
43%
Olimp Comrat 1+ goals
61%
Olimp Comrat 2+ goals
24%
Olimp Comrat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)
84%
Olimp Comrat (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranis Nisporeni at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Olimp Comrat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranis Nisporeni attack 3.00 + Olimp Comrat defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Olimp Comrat attack 1.14 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Speranis Nisporeni scores more
70%
level
17%
Olimp Comrat scores more
13%

Speranis Nisporeni at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Speranis Nisporeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Speranis Nisporeni vs Olimp Comrat

Speranis Nisporeni beat Olimp Comrat 2-0 in League #395 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Nisporeni in Nisporeni.