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Olimp Comrat vs Speranis Nisporeni — League #395 2026

Olimp Comrat
Olimp Comrat
FT
3 – 1
Speranis Nisporeni
Speranis Nisporeni
12/9/2023League #395League #395 · Round 14Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olimp Comrat52%
×Draw22%
Speranis Nisporeni26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimp Comrat
1.94
Speranis Nisporeni
1.31

Olimp Comrat creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Olimp Comrat
1.88
Speranis Nisporeni
1.25

allows per match

Olimp Comrat
1.38
Speranis Nisporeni
2.00

finishing

Olimp Comrat+0.00on par
Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimp Comrat ↓

Speranis Nisporeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Olimp Comrat or draw
74%
Olimp Comrat or Speranis Nisporeni
78%
Draw or Speranis Nisporeni
48%

Winning margin

Olimp Comrat wins by 2+
30%
Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olimp Comrat 1+ goals
86%
Olimp Comrat 2+ goals
58%
Olimp Comrat 3+ goals
30%
Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals
73%
Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals
38%
Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olimp Comrat (draw refunded)
67%
Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimp Comrat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Speranis Nisporeni away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimp Comrat attack 1.88 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Speranis Nisporeni attack 1.25 + Olimp Comrat defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olimp Comrat scores more
52%
level
22%
Speranis Nisporeni scores more
26%

Olimp Comrat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olimp Comrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Olimp Comrat 3–1 Speranis Nisporeni

Olimp Comrat beat Speranis Nisporeni 3-1 in League #395 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva in Komrat.