Spartans 1–3 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Spartans

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stirling Albion

B. Whyte 4'

R. McLean 62'

J. Allan 54'

R. McNab 43'

7/14/2026

League Cup · Group StageAinslie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spartans43%

×Draw27%

Stirling Albion30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpartansExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Spartans

1.36

Stirling Albion

1.10

Spartans creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Spartans

1.40

Stirling Albion

1.00

allows per match

Spartans

1.20

Stirling Albion

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spartans or draw

70%

Spartans or Stirling Albion

73%

Draw or Stirling Albion

57%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+

20%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals

74%

Spartans 2+ goals

39%

Spartans 3+ goals

16%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

67%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

30%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)

59%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.40 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stirling Albion attack 1.00 + Spartans defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spartans scores more

43%

level

27%

Stirling Albion scores more

30%

Spartans at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

B. Whyte

37'

C. Crane

43'

R. McNab↳ B. Hepburn

46'

J. Dishington← M. Ross

54'

55'

62'

63'

63'

B. Heal← B. Walls

63'

A. Laird← B. Hepburn

70'

S. Boyle← J. Allan

76'

O. Fitzsimmons← B. Whyte

85'

A. Wylie← J. Craigen

Spartans4-4-1-1

Stirling4-4-2

10

30

16

2

1

5

28

▼

4

29

16

18

▼

Walls

👔

Manager: Douglas Samuel

46'▲J. Dishington←▼M. Ross

63'▲M. McNulty←▼M. Stowe

63'▲B. Heal←▼B. Walls

76'▲O. Fitzsimmons←▼B. Whyte

85'▲A. Wylie←▼J. Craigen

Spartans substitutes

21Martin9McNulty

👔

Manager: Alan Maybury

55'▲R. McLean←▼H. Wright

63'▲A. Laird←▼B. Hepburn

70'▲S. Boyle←▼J. Allan

Stirling Albion substitutes

9McLean