Spartans 1–3 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Spartans

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Stirling Albion

A. Sonkur 78'

C. Eadie 46'

R. Cunningham 45' (pen)

R. Shanley 16'

9/20/2025

League Two · Round 7Ainslie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartans44%

×Draw26%

Stirling Albion30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpartansExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.17

Spartans

1.46

Stirling Albion

1.17

Spartans creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

1.22

creates per match

1.40

0.94

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Spartans

1.22

Stirling Albion

1.40

allows per match

Spartans

0.94

Stirling Albion

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Spartans or draw

70%

Spartans or Stirling Albion

74%

Draw or Stirling Albion

56%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+

21%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals

77%

Spartans 2+ goals

43%

Spartans 3+ goals

18%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

69%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

33%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)

59%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.22 + Stirling Albion defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Stirling Albion attack 1.40 + Spartans defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spartans scores more

44%

level

26%

Stirling Albion scores more

30%

Spartans at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

R. Shanley

45'

P. Martin

45'

R. CunninghamPenalty

46'

C. Eadie

56'

K. Watson← K. Waugh

56'

M. McNulty← S. Welsh

56'

E. Drysdale← C. Booth

59'

67'

70'

71'

73'

73'

D. Hilson← R. Shanley

78'

A. Sonkur

79'

L. Hodgkiss← R. McGeachie

79'

B. Hutchinson← M. Carse

90+2'

K. Thomson← A. Brown

Spartans

Stirling

1

Gaston

3

▼

Murdoch

6

Banner

2

▼

McGeachie

30

Crane

10

⚽

Cunningha

5

McNab

8

▼

Carse

11

▼

Brown

29

⚽

▼

Shanley

9

⚽

Eadie

21

Martin

5

Tapping

3

▼

Booth

4

▼

Welsh

15

⚽

Sonkur

23

▼

Waugh

28

▼

33

29

7

11

Manager: Dougie Samuel

56'▲K. Watson←▼K. Waugh

56'▲M. McNulty←▼S. Welsh

56'▲E. Drysdale←▼C. Booth

71'▲M. Scott←▼J. Craigen

Spartans substitutes

1Carswell2Watson6Dall9McNulty10Scott12Nair17Wylie19Drysdale20Ndlovu

Manager: Alan Paul Maybury

73'▲H. Ewen←▼S. Murdoch

73'▲D. Hilson←▼R. Shanley

79'▲L. Hodgkiss←▼R. McGeachie

79'▲B. Hutchinson←▼M. Carse

90+2'▲K. Thomson←▼A. Brown

Stirling Albion substitutes

31Duffy7Thomson14Ewen15Hodgkiss23Hutchinson24Thomson25Hilson28Cannon32Campbell