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Spartans vs East Fife — League Two 2018

Spartans
Spartans
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
East Fife
East Fife
9/28/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Spartans39%
×Draw27%
East Fife34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartans
1.29
East Fife
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 54 away

creates per match

Spartans
1.31
East Fife
1.30

allows per match

Spartans
1.09
East Fife
1.28

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par
East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

East Fife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spartans or draw
66%
Spartans or East Fife
73%
Draw or East Fife
61%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+
17%
East Fife wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals
72%
Spartans 2+ goals
37%
Spartans 3+ goals
14%
East Fife 1+ goals
70%
East Fife 2+ goals
34%
East Fife 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)
53%
East Fife (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

East Fife away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.31 + East Fife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

East Fife attack 1.30 + Spartans defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartans scores more
39%
level
27%
East Fife scores more
34%

Spartans at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Spartans 0–1 East Fife

East Fife beat Spartans 1-0 in League Two on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.