East Fife 4–2 Spartans: Result & Stats | League Two

East Fife

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Spartans

3/29/2025

League Two · Round 31MGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

East Fife40%

×Draw25%

Spartans35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East FifeExpected goals in this matchSpartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.42

East Fife

1.52

Spartans

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

1.76

creates per match

1.65

1.20

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

East Fife

1.76

Spartans

1.65

allows per match

East Fife

1.20

Spartans

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par

Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

East Fife or draw

65%

East Fife or Spartans

75%

Draw or Spartans

60%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+

19%

Spartans wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals

78%

East Fife 2+ goals

45%

East Fife 3+ goals

20%

Spartans 1+ goals

76%

Spartans 2+ goals

41%

Spartans 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)

53%

Spartans (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.20 · 54 matches

Spartans away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.76 + Spartans defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spartans attack 1.65 + East Fife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

East Fife scores more

40%

level

25%

Spartans scores more

35%

East Fife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "East Fife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff