Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartans vs Deveronvale — FA Cup 2019

Spartans
Spartans
FT
1 – 1
Deveronvale
Deveronvale
9/21/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundAinslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spartans31%
×Draw25%
Deveronvale44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartans
1.23
Deveronvale
1.52

Deveronvale creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spartans
1.13
Deveronvale
1.67

allows per match

Spartans
1.38
Deveronvale
1.33

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par
Deveronvale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Deveronvale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spartans or draw
56%
Spartans or Deveronvale
75%
Draw or Deveronvale
69%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+
13%
Deveronvale wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals
71%
Spartans 2+ goals
35%
Spartans 3+ goals
13%
Deveronvale 1+ goals
78%
Deveronvale 2+ goals
45%
Deveronvale 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)
41%
Deveronvale (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Deveronvale away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.13 + Deveronvale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deveronvale attack 1.67 + Spartans defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spartans scores more
31%
level
25%
Deveronvale scores more
44%

Deveronvale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deveronvale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartans vs Deveronvale

Spartans and Deveronvale drew 1-1 in FA Cup on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.