Deveronvale 1–2 Spartans: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Deveronvale

FT

1 – 2

Spartans

9/30/2019

FA Cup · 1st Round ReplaysPrincess Royal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Deveronvale32%

×Draw21%

Spartans47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeveronvaleExpected goals in this matchSpartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

2.13

Deveronvale

1.74

Spartans

2.13

Spartans creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.43

2.83

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Deveronvale

1.33

Spartans

1.43

allows per match

Deveronvale

2.83

Spartans

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deveronvale+0.00on par

Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deveronvale ↓

Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Deveronvale or draw

53%

Deveronvale or Spartans

79%

Draw or Spartans

68%

Winning margin

Deveronvale wins by 2+

16%

Spartans wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Deveronvale 1+ goals

82%

Deveronvale 2+ goals

52%

Deveronvale 3+ goals

25%

Spartans 1+ goals

88%

Spartans 2+ goals

63%

Spartans 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Deveronvale (draw refunded)

41%

Spartans (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deveronvale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Spartans away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deveronvale attack 1.33 + Spartans defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Spartans attack 1.43 + Deveronvale defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deveronvale scores more

32%

level

21%

Spartans scores more

47%

Spartans at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff