Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartanii Selemet vs Saxan — Super Liga 2026

Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Saxan
Saxan
3/29/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 3Stadionul CS Real Succes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartanii Selemet28%
×Draw22%
Saxan50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartanii Selemet
1.36
Saxan
1.89

Saxan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet
1.13
Saxan
1.41

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet
2.37
Saxan
1.59

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par
Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Saxan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw
50%
Spartanii Selemet or Saxan
78%
Draw or Saxan
72%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
12%
Saxan wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
74%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
39%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
16%
Saxan 1+ goals
85%
Saxan 2+ goals
56%
Saxan 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
36%
Saxan (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.37 · 46 matches

Saxan away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.13 + Saxan defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Saxan attack 1.41 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more
28%
level
22%
Saxan scores more
50%

Saxan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartanii Selemet vs Saxan

Saxan beat Spartanii Selemet 4-2 in Super Liga on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul CS Real Succes in Chişinău.