Saxan 1–3 Spartanii Selemet: Result & Stats

Saxan

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Spartanii Selemet

4/27/2024

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 8Stadionul Ceadîr Lunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Saxan68%

×Draw17%

Spartanii Selemet14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaxanExpected goals in this matchSpartanii Selemet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.08

Saxan

2.53

Spartanii Selemet

1.08

Saxan creates 134% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

2.72

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Saxan

2.72

Spartanii Selemet

1.00

allows per match

Saxan

1.17

Spartanii Selemet

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saxan+0.00on par

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saxan ↓

Spartanii Selemet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Saxan or draw

86%

Saxan or Spartanii Selemet

83%

Draw or Spartanii Selemet

32%

Winning margin

Saxan wins by 2+

46%

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Saxan 1+ goals

92%

Saxan 2+ goals

71%

Saxan 3+ goals

46%

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

66%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

29%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Saxan (draw refunded)

83%

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saxan at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saxan attack 2.72 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.53

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Saxan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Saxan scores more

68%

level

17%

Spartanii Selemet scores more

14%

Saxan at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff