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Spartanii Selemet vs Real Succes — League #395 2026

Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
FT
2 – 0
Real Succes
Real Succes
9/2/2022League #395League #395 · Round 2Stadionul Selemet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spartanii Selemet93%
×Draw6%
Real Succes1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartanii Selemet
3.29
Real Succes
0.21

Spartanii Selemet creates 1467% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet
4.00
Real Succes
0.43

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet
0.00
Real Succes
2.57

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par
Real Succes+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%No
  • No82
  • Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Real Succes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–019%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (19%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw
99%
Spartanii Selemet or Real Succes
94%
Draw or Real Succes
7%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
79%
Real Succes wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
96%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
83%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
62%
Real Succes 1+ goals
19%
Real Succes 2+ goals
2%
Real Succes 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
99%
Real Succes (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Real Succes away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 4.00 + Real Succes defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.29

Real Succes attack 0.43 + Spartanii Selemet defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more
93%
level
6%
Real Succes scores more
1%

Spartanii Selemet at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Spartanii Selemet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Spartanii Selemet 2–0 Real Succes

Spartanii Selemet beat Real Succes 2-0 in League #395 on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Selemet in Selemet.