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Real Succes vs Spartanii Selemet — League #395 2026

Real Succes
Real Succes
FT
0 – 4
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
10/14/2022League #395League #395 · Round 7Stadionul CS Real Succes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Succes3%
×Draw11%
Spartanii Selemet86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Succes
0.33
Spartanii Selemet
2.67

Spartanii Selemet creates 709% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Real Succes
0.33
Spartanii Selemet
3.00

allows per match

Real Succes
2.33
Spartanii Selemet
0.33

finishing

Real Succes+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Succes ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–114%
0–218%
0–316%
0–411%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (18%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Succes or draw
14%
Real Succes or Spartanii Selemet
89%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
97%

Winning margin

Real Succes wins by 2+
0%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Real Succes 1+ goals
28%
Real Succes 2+ goals
4%
Real Succes 3+ goals
0%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
93%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
74%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Real Succes (draw refunded)
3%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Succes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Succes attack 0.33 + Spartanii Selemet defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Spartanii Selemet attack 3.00 + Real Succes defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Real Succes scores more
3%
level
11%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
86%

Spartanii Selemet at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Spartanii Selemet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Real Succes 0–4 Spartanii Selemet

Spartanii Selemet beat Real Succes 4-0 in League #395 on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul CS Real Succes in Chişinău.