Spartanii Selemet 1–3 Dinamo-Auto: Result & Stats

Spartanii Selemet

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo-Auto

N. Murovanii 79'

V. Gaiu 61', 48'

V. Cemîrtan 20'

10/26/2021

Cupa · Round of 16Stadionul Selemet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spartanii Selemet37%

×Draw20%

Dinamo-Auto43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartanii SelemetExpected goals in this matchDinamo-Auto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.25

Spartanii Selemet

2.08

Dinamo-Auto

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

2.00

2.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet

1.83

Dinamo-Auto

2.00

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet

2.50

Dinamo-Auto

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Dinamo-Auto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw

57%

Spartanii Selemet or Dinamo-Auto

80%

Draw or Dinamo-Auto

63%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

87%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

61%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

34%

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

89%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

65%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

46%

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.83 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dinamo-Auto attack 2.00 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more

37%

level

20%

Dinamo-Auto scores more

43%

Dinamo-Auto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

48'

61'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff