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Dinamo-Auto vs Spartanii Selemet — Super Liga 2019

Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
4/21/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 6Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dinamo-Auto52%
×Draw23%
Spartanii Selemet25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo-Auto
1.82
Spartanii Selemet
1.18

Dinamo-Auto creates 54% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto
1.31
Spartanii Selemet
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto
1.35
Spartanii Selemet
2.33

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw
75%
Dinamo-Auto or Spartanii Selemet
77%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
29%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
54%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
27%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
69%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
33%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
68%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.31 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.82

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more
52%
level
23%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
25%

Dinamo-Auto at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Dinamo-Auto 2–0 Spartanii Selemet

Dinamo-Auto beat Spartanii Selemet 2-0 in Super Liga on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Dinamo-Auto in Ternovca.